The AL East has been really tough to winSince 2010, the most and fewest number of wins for the winner of each MLB division, with the average number of wins (per 162 games) required 2008Tampa Bay Rays1096673 2017Cleveland Indians937111 2019Tampa Bay Rays11611715 WAR Rankings by category YearTeamHittingRunningDefenseStartersBullpenOverall These Rays go to 11MLB teams who ranked among the top 11 in every subcategory of wins above replacement — across offense, defense and pitching — since 1995 NL Central1049095.3 1996Texas Rangers1039763 AL Central1028894.2 AL West1058896.6 2016L.A. Dodgers9951146 2002Anaheim Angels9211164 It’s tough to find a more successful baseball club over the past decade-plus than the Tampa Bay Rays, owners of a 1,035-901 record — fifth-best in MLB — ever since their stunning breakout in 2008. The Rays went to the World Series that season and made the playoffs in three of the five years that followed, creating a blueprint for other teams hoping to win on similarly microscopic budgets. Even this year, the Rays sit 10th in our Elo team rankings despite ranking 30th in payroll.But for all of those wins, Tampa Bay has had some lousy luck in actually getting to the playoffs. The Rays have made only three postseason appearances this decade — and none since 2013. Only three teams in the expanded wild-card era (since 2012) have won 90 games but failed to play in the postseason: One of those was the 2013 Texas Rangers; the other two were Rays clubs, in 2012 and 2018. And this year’s team, on pace for 95 wins, has just a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the FiveThirtyEight model. What do the Rays have to do to get some postseason love around here?Some of Tampa’s troubles simply have to do with playing in the cutthroat American League East, where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are together currently spending more than twice as much on players as the rest of the division combined. Whether in terms of the average victories necessary to win the division or even just the bare-minimum requirement, those numbers have consistently been higher for the AL East than any other division in baseball this decade: 2001Seattle Mariners111951 AL East1089397.3 DivisionMostFewestAverage NL East1029096.1 NL West1049194.8 Winner’s Wins (per 162 games) 2002Seattle Mariners3410856 Source: Baseball-Reference.com In every division except the AL East and NL West, a 90-win team has had at least had some chance to come out in first place this decade. But in the AL East, no fewer than 93 wins have been required to win the division, and seldom fewer than 91 have been needed to make the playoffs, period.1Two 89-win teams — the 2016 Blue Jays and Orioles — and one 87-win team — the 2015 Yankees — have made the wild card this decade out of the AL East. By my accounting,2Using a logistic regression on team data since 1995, with a dummy variable for the extra wild-card slot MLB added in 2012. being in the AL East makes it 8 percentage points tougher for a 90-win team to make the playoffs than being in another division would make it, 10 percentage points tougher for an 89-win team and 12 percentage points tougher for an 88-win team.That sweet spot around 90 wins happens to be where Tampa tends to often find itself, and it’s tough to make the playoffs from that zone when you’re in the AL East. Last year was a great example: The Rays went 90-72 but were precluded from winning the division (the Red Sox won 108 games) or even finishing in second place (the Yankees won 100 on the number). That left only one solitary playoff spot even up for the Rays to battle for, and it was snapped up by the 97-win Oakland Athletics. Baseball’s seventh-best team by wins above replacement,3Using our JEFFBAGWELL metric to blend WAR from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. sporting a record that would normally earn a playoff slot 81 percent of the time in the double-wild-card era,4Once again, according to the logistic regression I ran. ended up missing the playoffs by seven whole games.But the Rays have found ways to miss the playoffs even when the Yankee/Red Sox hegemony was partially broken. Back in 2012, New York was good (95 wins) but hardly dominant, and Boston deteriorated completely under the not-so-watchful eye of Bobby Valentine, going 69-93. Meanwhile Tampa Bay had the fourth-most WAR in baseball, led by star seasons from Ben Zobrist (5.7 WAR) and David Price (5.5), plus solid years via players ranging from the expected (James Shields, Evan Longoria) to the out-of-nowhere (Jeff Keppinger??). By WAR, that was one of the most talented teams the Rays have ever produced. But they underperformed relative to the record their underlying stats say they “should” have had — according to BaseRuns, they should have made the playoffs with a 95-67 mark — wasting a red-hot 36-22 finish over the last two months of the season to end up three games shy of Texas and Baltimore for the wild card.The disappointing Red Sox will miss the playoffs this season as well, possibly finishing as many as 10 games behind the rival Rays. Although the Yankees have dominated this season, tracking for 105 wins, you would think 95 wins could at least buy the Rays a wild-card appearance, in a wide-open year with Boston out of the picture.And yet, here Tampa Bay is again, fighting for its playoff life on a nightly basis over the final few weeks of the season. Once again, the Oakland A’s — in many ways the West Coast mirror image of the Rays — are almost assured of one wild-card slot, putting themselves on pace for 97 wins by season’s end. And after the Minnesota Twins unexpectedly dominated the AL Central race, the Cleveland Indians’ only playoff hopes essentially rest on the same wild-card spot Tampa Bay has been eyeing all season. In the mega-top-heavy AL, one misfortunate team could win 95 games and still miss the playoffs entirely.5And the team that makes it would promptly haves to face a gauntlet of three hundred-win teams, and a 97-win one.If that team ends up being Tampa, it would obscure what has been maybe the most quintessentially Rays-y season of them all, in terms of doing more with less. The team’s best player by WAR (with 5.1) has been pitcher Charlie Morton, who had 1.5 career WAR to his name before joining the Astros in 2017; he is easily obliterating his previous career-best WAR (3.2 in 2018) this season at age 35. Left fielder Tommy Pham (3.9 WAR) had previously displayed his talent with 6.2 WAR in 2017, and shortstop Willy Adames had up-and-coming star potential. But the rest of Tampa Bay’s expected stars — such as pitcher Blake Snell and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — have been merely OK, if also injured and/or underwhelming.Instead, the Rays have succeeded with a mishmash of acquired prospects (Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow), unheralded youngsters (Brandon Lowe), seemingly random pitchers (Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Emilio Pagan), retread veterans (Travis d’Arnaud) and other spare parts. They still use the opener, still shift a ton and still play relievers in the field before putting them back on the mound. They’ve fought through key injuries to rank fifth in the league in WAR per game, and through Sunday they were tracking to become just the eighth team since the 1994 strike to rank among MLB’s top 11 in WAR from every phase of the game — hitting, fielding, base-running and pitching (both starting and relieving):6Yes, “top 11” is arbitrary. Who cares? This is an impressive all-around team season! 2019 Rays’ rankings are through Sept. 15.Source: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com (Fittingly, the 2008 Rays — the team that started it all — are also in that club.)If Tampa Bay does end up missing the playoffs, it would go down as one of the best teams ever to fit that criteria. Its current Elo rating of 1543 would tie last year’s Rays for the second-best among nonplayoff teams of the double-wild-card era (trailing only the 2012 Rays), and its 0.303 WAR per game would easily be the highest of any nonplayoff team since 2012. The last team to miss the postseason with as many WAR per game was the 2011 Red Sox, who fumbled away their playoff hopes with one of the most infamous collapses in baseball history.But if the baseball gods know what they’re doing, they would maybe consider giving the Rays a break this time around. The franchise has already seen several of the hardest-luck nonplayoff seasons in recent history — and this year’s might be the cruelest postseason snub of all, given how many wins the Rays might rack up in vain. After so many years spent knocking on the door with records that usually belong in the postseason, it seems like it’s time Tampa finally gets in.Check out our latest MLB predictions.
Indian stocks markets are expected to advance for the first time in three sessions on Monday, as firm trend in global markets may offer support to investor sentiment.The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty witnessed a volatile session and ended with losses for the second straight session on Friday, as gains in realty and power sector shares were offset by declines in consumer durables, IT and FMCG sectors.Asian stock markets gained on Monday after Lawrence Summers withdrew from the race to be head of the Federal Reserve, paving the way for Janet Yellen, who is expected to favor a slower reduction in $85 billion monthly asset-buying program.”It’s quite positive for equities. It puts Yellen back on the cards as the favorite. She’s more aligned to retaining accommodative policy and is seen as not being as brash as Summers might have been,” George Boubouras, Melbourne-based chief investment officer at Equity Trustees Ltd., where he helps oversee about $28 billion, told Bloomberg.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 1.30 percent and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 0.70 percent, while Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.12 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.23 percent.US stock markets ended with gains on Friday as weaker-than-expected retail sales and consumer sentiment data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve stimulus cuts this month would be moderate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.49 percent, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.27 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.17 percent.Data released by US Commerce Department on Friday showed that retail sales, which measures consumer spending that accounts for a bulk of the country’s economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in August, weaker than analysts’ estimation of 0.5 percent gain. Meanwhile, Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined to 76.8 in September, the lowest level since April, down from 82.1 last month and also fell short of Bloomberg’s estimation of 82.
Prabhas’ remuneration in SaahoTwitterAfter the grand success of Baahubali 2, Prabhas is all set to appear in a completely different avatar in Saaho. While his fans are extremely excited for the release of the film, the kind of remuneration that Prabhas is being paid for the film will blow everyone’s mind.Saaho is a highly big budget film with popular stars including Prabhas, Shraddha Kapoor, Jackie Shroff, Chunky Pandey, Neil Nitin Mukesh, Mahesh Manjrekar among others.As the film’s release is nearing, reports talking about Prabhas being paid a whopping sum of Rs 100 crore have been doing the rounds. If this is true, Prabhas has become the highest paid Indian actor beating all the biggies like the three Khans or Rajnikanth.Apart from Rs 100 crore as fixed fees for Saaho, some reports even claimed that he will also be having a share in the film’s profit. However, all these are still just rumours as no one from the team has confirmed anything regarding the actor’s remuneration.Directed by Sujeeth, Saaho is an action thriller with extensive use of VFX. The teaser of the film impressed all with high octane action, fresh chemistry of Prabhas and Shraddha, and interesting dialogues.Set to be released in four languages, Saaho is certainly expected to have a massive opening at the box office. The film will hit the theatres on August 30.
Explore further Observed and simulated change in global-mean surface temperature. Credit: Nature Climate Change (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2355 Global warming ‘pause’ since 1998 reflects natural fluctuation, study concludes © 2014 Phys.org Citation: Separate studies suggest current “pause” in global warming likely the last (2014, September 2) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2014-09-current-global.html Most scientists agree that the current pause we are experiencing with global warming is likely due to the ocean serving as a massive heat sink (and a small amount of cooling due to volcanic eruptions). Most also agree that the time is coming soon when the oceans will stop absorbing the excess heat, ending the pause we are experiencing and allowing global temperatures to rise again.The team in Japan has found, using climate records and models, that natural variations in temperature over the past thirty years have had less of an influence on the overall warmth of the planet than in the past, suggesting, that pauses such as we are now experiencing will have less and less of an impact going forward if the atmosphere continues to heat up. More specifically, their models show that during the 1980’s natural atmospheric temperature variations accounted for roughly half of temperature changes that were seen. In the 1990’s the percentage fell to just 38 percent and then to 27 percent after the turn of the century. Heading into the future, they predict, warming due to human activities will account for more and more of the changes in temperatures, leaving less variability due to natural causes such as the one that led to the pause we are now experiencing.The team in Australia ran 31 environmental models and came to the conclusion that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, the likelihood of another pause in global warming drops to near zero. Even worse, they suggest that the extra heat that has been pulled into the world’s oceans is likely to be released causing a speed-up of global warming. Their models show that even if there is a major volcanic event of the magnitude of Krakatau, for example, the outcome remains the same, a constant increase in global temperatures, i.e. no hiatuses or pauses along the way.Both groups suggest the catastrophic impact of global warming in the not-too-distant future as seen in their dire predictions can be averted if we act now as a global community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Journal information: Nature Climate Change This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. , Geophysical Research Letters (Phys.org) —Two different research groups working independently have come to the same conclusion, the current pause we’ve experienced in global warming (since 1997) is very likely the last we’re likely to see if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue. One team, with members from several research centers in Japan, has published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change. The other, based at the University of New South Wales, in Australia, has published their findings in Geophysical Research Letters. More information: 1. Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus, Nature Climate Change (2014) DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2355AbstractReasons for the apparent pause in the rise of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) after the turn of the century has been a mystery, undermining confidence in climate projections. Recent climate model simulations indicate this warming hiatus originated from eastern equatorial Pacific cooling4 associated with strengthening of trade winds5. Using a climate model that overrides tropical wind stress anomalies with observations for 1958–2012, we show that decadal-mean anomalies of global SAT referenced to the period 1961–1990 are changed by 0.11, 0.13 and −0.11 °C in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, without variation in human-induced radiative forcing. They account for about 47%, 38% and 27% of the respective temperature change. The dominant wind stress variability consistent with this warming/cooling represents the deceleration/acceleration of the Pacific trade winds, which can be robustly reproduced by atmospheric model simulations forced by observed sea surface temperature excluding anthropogenic warming components. Results indicate that inherent decadal climate variability contributes considerably to the observed global-mean SAT time series, but that its influence on decadal-mean SAT has gradually decreased relative to the rising anthropogenic warming signal.2. Maher, N., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2014), Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060527.AbstractThe latest generation of climate model simulations are used to investigate the occurrence of hiatus periods in global surface air temperature in the past and under two future warming scenarios. Hiatus periods are identified in three categories: (i) those due to volcanic eruptions, (ii) those associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and (iii) those affected by anthropogenically released aerosols in the mid-twentieth century. The likelihood of future hiatus periods is found to be sensitive to the rate of change of anthropogenic forcing. Under high rates of greenhouse gas emissions there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption. We further demonstrate that most nonvolcanic hiatuses across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase.